U.S. President-elect Barack Obama's administration will offer Israel a "nuclear umbrella" against the threat of a nuclear attack by Iran, a well-placed American source said earlier this week. The source, who is close to the new administration, said the U.S. will declare that an attack on Israel by Tehran would result in a devastating U.S. nuclear response against Iran.There is good news here for those who feared Obama was the second coming of McGovern.
On the other hand, Obama, in regards to middle east policy, is far more likely to be the second coming of Clinton, which is to say: heart in the right place, but ignorant until too late about the realities of the region.
To wit: Iran is unlikely to launch a nuclear missle against Israel. Iran is far more likely to pass nuclear technology to affiliated terrorist groups. An attack by such groups will not, immediately or with certainty, be traced back to Iran. And so Israelis and Iranians know that Obama's umbrella is far from waterproof. Obama may even know that too, which is why its easy for him to offer it.
Granting Israel a nuclear guarantee essentially suggests the U.S. is willing to come to terms with a nuclear Iran. For its part, Israel opposes any such development and similar opposition was voiced by officials in the outgoing Bush administration. This may not be true. Extending the umbrella might well be intended to lower the value of nuclear weapons to Iran, as part of an effort to disuade Iran from pursuing them.
If it is: Given that affiliated terrorist groups will likely be Iran's vector of choice for a nuclear attack, its not clear to me that Israelis should be more afraid of a nuclear attack from Iran then we are. New York is as least as likely a target for nuclear terrorists as Haifa.
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