Rape

Somehow, or another, rape has become a controversial issue this election. According to Democrats and their allied Media, it turns out that Republicans, especially those who oppose abortion even in instances of rape, are pro-rape.

Republicans, were they savvy, would have an effective stratagem to expose the truth of the matter: Propose the death penalty for rapists.

To My Democratic Friends...

Passing Health Care Reform was, for your team, a historical achievement. But the President has been mostly unable to sell it to the American people. Partisans left and right hope|fear that the reform will become much more popular once enacted, but that is not likely -- Health Care Reform was far more controversial at inception than either Social Security, or Medicare. More likely, it will become even more polarizing and more bitterly fought over every election cycle on the state and federal level. As such it will be, at best, unevenly implemented.

The tragedy is that there were no shortage of "good ideas" (for example: better aligning incentives by severing insurance from employment or promoting alternatives to fee-for-service), that could have more sustainably passed with some bi-partisan support and, in-turn, built credibility toward more ambitious reform.

To hear your economists, the Stimulus program was too small to possibly succeed, but just large enough to be a political disaster for its backers.

After the financial crisis, there was a national consensus that "too big too fail" and "public risk, private reward" had to end. It is really hard to argue that Dodd-Frank accomplished either. On the contrary, the largest banks today, control more of the economy than ever, and the Government is still subsidizing bankers' bonuses.

Obama argues he is pursuing a savvy, subtle, long-game, foriegn policy. Certainly, running around the Middle East trying to impose Democracy wasn't brilliant. On the other hand, there has to be some sensible middle ground between that and policy that seems oddly complacent in the face of a world that is, in many respects, more dangerous now than it was four years ago.

To take one example: Moderate Muslims, are fighting with Islamicists for the future of their societies. According to the New York Times, "One of the principal goals of the extremists... is to pressure these transitional governments to enact and enforce strict laws against blasphemy. These laws can then be used to purge secularists and moderates." With that in mind, it is hard to see the administration's response to the youtube video protests as either savvy or subtle.

Mitt Romney ran to the left of Teddy Kennedy and to the right of Gingrich and Perry. He is a tactician, not an ideologue. As a tactician, he tracked to the right in the primaries, and back to the center in the general. In the face of conservative pressure in the primaries, he refused to jeopardize his general electibility by dis-owning "RomneyCare". While that should have given conservatives pause, it should re-assure, moderates and liberals. As President, he can be expected to be more like Clinton than Obama: refusing to jeopardize his re-electability playing to the unpopular passions of his base (in Romney's case, for example by dismantling the safety net or bomb, bomb, bombing Iran).

Finally, a Romney win will strengthen moderate Republicans in the way that Clinton's victory strengthened, for a time, "Third Way" Democrats. This would be a good thing.

The Leopard and the Fox

Tonight's debate was a strange one. Romney, stuck precisely to the strategy he telegraphed, and the President had no response. It was like watching a great running back clinching a Super Bowl.

For Romney supporters, this debate was fun. "Look, I got five boys. I'm used to people saying something that's not always true, but just keep on repeating it and ultimately hoping I'll believe it" -- Zap! "you don't just pick the winners and losers; you pick the losers." -- Pow! ": Jim, the president began this segment, so I think I get the last word, so I'm going to take it." (after the Obama tried to get in the last word with "Jim, I — you may want to move on to another topic, but I would just say this to the American people...") -- Bam! "You've been president four years" -- Kapow! "we've gone on a lot of topics there, and so it's going to take a minute to go from Medicaid to schools... to oil, to tax breaks, then companies going overseas. So let's go through them one by one." -- Shazam! Obama supporters are critiquing Romney's lack of specifity, but he drowned Obama in a sea of First, Second and Thirds.

What is most strange, however, is that not long into the debate, neither the President, nor for that matter the moderator, seemed to want to be there. They seemed almost drugged. The President conveyed the clear sense that this debate didn't matter.

That may be the case. The debates closer to the election may matter much more or the number of votes sway-able by gaffe-free debates may be minimal. Or maybe Obama came prepared with a set of canned answers and was unready for the surprising level of back and forth the moderator allowed.

The First Debate

Strangely, Romney is being described as a strong debater. That hardly seemed to be the case in the primary debates, after which the anybody-but-Romney of the month received large bursts.

Romney's strength, and weakness, is that every word out of his mouth feels prepared and tested. Obama appears much stronger extemporaneously. In general, voters prefer boldness and authenticity. In this election, voters may appreciate a candidate who takes his homework seriously.

More strangely, Romney has telegraphed his debate strategy: "casting President Barack Obama as someone who can’t be trusted to stick to the facts or keep his promises". Unless the Romney campaign is more of a rolling calamity than suspected, this will prove to be a bit of psychological gamesmanship. Romney almost certainly understands that to win the debate he needs to visibly rattle the President.

In the end, the premise of the Romney's campaign is his competence and preparation. If an over-confident Obama veers off his own prepared script, a prepared Romney will be ready.