WASHINGTON — When President-elect Barack Obama went to Israel in July — to the very town, in fact, whose repeated shelling culminated in this weekend’s new fighting in Gaza — he all but endorsed the punishing Israeli attacks now unfolding.
“If somebody was sending rockets into my house, where my two daughters sleep at night, I’m going to do everything in my power to stop that,” he told reporters in Sderot, a small city on the edge of Gaza that has been hit repeatedly by rocket fire. “And I would expect Israelis to do the same thing.”
There are two seperate questions at stake regarding Israel's attack on Hamas. The first is whether or not Israel is in its rights. The second is, is Israel acting intelligently, strategically or effectively. Obama's quote speaks to the former. These questions are not independant, the assertion that Israel has a right to do everything in its power to stop Hamas, is limited by "to stop Hamas".
The key question, then, becomes: Will what Israel is doing stop Hamas?
It is reasonable to fear that it won't. Its hard to see how killing a few hundred Hamas-niks and bombing a few buildings is going to stop Hamas. Hamas is supported and trained by Iran, its real leadership is in Syria and it has no apparent recruiting problem in Gaza. The most likely outcome of this war is an internationally brokered cease fire that will include easing the blockade on Gaza, which will, in turn, allow Hamas to -- with some justification -- claim Great Success and strengthen the argument within the Palestinian polity that the most effective way to deal with Israel is via violence.
The only way I can see to actually defeat Hamas militarily is to re-occupy Gaza. This is unlikely to happen, simply because Israeli parents -- by and large -- do not want their children patrolling Gaza. It is somewhat ironic in as much as the international community would probably acquiesce. Who that matters would really shed an honest tear if Israel overthrew the Hamas government, whilst accelerating negotiations with Fatah?
Given how eagerly the Israeli leadership appears to be embracing the current calls for cease fire, it is possible that the threat of ground invasion has always been a bluff. That Israel's goal was always more limited -- simply returning to the status quo. If so, that may well prove foolish. It is a bluff Hamas/Syria/Iran have no reason not to call. If the goal was indeed so limited, my sense is that Israel would have been better off with randomized intermittant attacks on a wide range of pin-pointed Hamas related targets in response to rocket attacks, instead of this phony War.
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