Rope-A-Dope

To make a bold prediction: Romney will see a mild ~3% boost after the GOP convention. He will then -- and this is not usual -- likely see another 5% boost after the *Democrat* convention.

Romney's general campaign -- as opposed to his primary one -- has been built on a very defensive strategy. He has to win the votes of people who voted for Obama, and so is reluctant to attack Obama in a manner that criticizes their choice in '08. His choice of VP, the convention focus on his compassion and his strong support for the women in his life, was crafted not so much to convince swing voters directly to vote for him, rather to convince them that negative attacks on his business record, and attitude towards women, are dishonest. If Obama chooses now to make such attacks the centerpiece of his convention -- and what else can he do? -- he will squander his likeability advantage boosting Romney in the polls.

To make another bold prediction: I don't see how a President who wants to win re-election doesn't drop Biden from the ticket. A new, surprise, VP candidate could be a game-changer.