Heads I Win, Tails You Lose

In the high stakes poker game, they were playing, Boehner folded.

As described by the President, the new deal is staged:

The first part of this agreement will cut about $1 trillion in spending over the next 10 years... the second part... establishes a bipartisan committee of Congress to report back by November with a proposal to further reduce the deficit... To hold us all accountable for making these reforms, tough cuts that both parties would find objectionable would automatically go into effect if we don’t act.

The threatened tough cuts would be to defense and medicare providers.

The President made absolutely clear in his statement that the substance of the negotiations -- tax raises vs spending cuts -- weren't going to change. In effect, what this deal does is switch the "hostage" from the debt limit to defense and seniors. Which is to say from a hostage many in the GOP -- who believe smaller government leads to economic growth -- would be happy to sacrifice. The committee it sets up will give equal weight to House Democrats and Republicans despite the 2010 elections that gave republicans an almost 2-1 edge.

Finally, and above all, there is absolutely nothing in this deal that would motivate Democrats to compromise. Should the committee come back empty handed, they would gleefully look forward to arguing to voters that crazy Republicans skewered Defense and Seniors to protect "the rich".

In other words, politically, Republicans would be well advised to trash this deal -- argue that Obama's insistence on playing politics with Defense spending renders him an unfit Commander-In-Chief -- and roll the dice on default.