All Politics is Local

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, never a friend of Israel's, has been the most vigorous voice condemning the Israeli raid on the Turkish Flotilla. His strong position neatly matches his domestic political calculus. Only three years ago, one million Turks protested against his government:

As many as one million people rallied... accusing the government of planning an Islamist state...  denouncing... Erdogan... as a threat to a secular order separating state and religion...

Only 10 years ago the army, with public support, hounded out of office a democratically elected Islamist government...  The army General Staff raised the stakes on Friday... with a threat to intervene in the election.  The Istanbul protesters said they backed the army, long viewed here as the ultimate guardian of the secular republic.

In the context of the historically close ties between the Israeli and Turkish militaries, Israel is, for Erdogan, likely a convenient proxy through which to attack/undermine his domestic secular/military political enemies.  Along the same lines, Israel's attempt to link the flotilla organizers to Islamic extremists, while galling to the American-left-of-center, is, in part, directed towards Turkish secularists.

The Israeli response will most likely prove Pyrrhic.  It will be all the harder for them, now, to maintain the blockade.  On the other hand, few Israelis believe Hamas ought not be blockaded and watching the videos, few Israelis see humanitarianism at work.  The greater the international condemnation/isolation, the more likely Israelis will be to rally round the flag.

Obama faces, perhaps, the toughest political dilemma. A big part of his base -- one which till now has had strong influence on his Israel policy -- would like to see Israel further under the bus. Especially after signing the NPT resolution singling out Israel, but not Iran, any hint of that here risks further decay in his support amongst Jewish-Americans.

On the other hand, Obama now has an opportunity to validate his diplomatic approach. The administration, in an attempt to please all its constituents, is advocating an "Israeli investigation" with "international participation." If Obama can get Israel and the international community to productively co-operate, he will have earned his Nobel prize.