Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Smart Diplomacy

Amongst the campaign promises the President has had difficult living up to was his commitment to smart diplomacy.

If this Drudge post is accurate, he appears about to, in his own way, deliver.

The gist of the four way deal is the US takes a much harsher line on Iran, in particular the promise of meaningful sanctions, Israel agrees to a very limited -- basically in name only -- settlement freeze, Arab states agree to very limited moves towards normalization, Palestinians agree to resume stalled negotiations.

According to the article, both Israel and the Arab States are primarily motivated by a desire to see the current administration grow a pair vis a vis Iran, it is less clear why the Palestinians agreed to play along. The promised shift in Obama's Iran policy is, in fact, the only real commitment in this whole deal. There is no indication of a genuine diplomatic breakthrough between Israel and the Palestinians that might lead to an actual agreement.

In the end, a skeptic might wonder if all this window dressing is entirely for the benefit of allowing our Government to save face as it drops a failing approach. More practically, perhaps the President felt he required the mirage of peace process progress to sell a more aggressive policy towards Iran to his core supporters.

Netanyahu is, perhaps, the biggest political winner. Israelis -- even those who generally oppose settlement construction -- being less aware of American domestic political calculations, will see this deal as being very well bargained by their Prime Minister.

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