It appears that UConn will not be a #1. Lunardi who felt on Friday that UConn was a #1 inexplicably changed his tune to Memphis on Saturday. Or rather, the only explanation is that he spoke to people on the committee.
By right, Memphis ought not be in the same conversation as UConn.
UConn has one bad loss this year -- to Georgetown, a team that, ironically, also beat Memphis (along with Tourney teams Syracuse and Villanova). It has two losses to Pitt, a likely #1 seed (and a team that matches up particularly well to UConn) and the tourney loss Syracuse, a top 15 RPI team, in six overtimes -- only after three key players fouled out in earlier overtimes -- that ought count, for seeding considerations, as a tie. They beat 8 different top 50 RPI teams -- @Wisconson, @Gonzaga, @West Virginia, @Louisville, Villanova, Michigan, Syracuse and @Marquette.
This is a #1 seed's body of work. The main contra-argument, that UConn's season should be discounted because of the Dyson injury, is patently unfair.
UConn's record is remarkably similar to, and no less impressive than, Pitt's: 1 bad loss @ Providence along with quality losses @ Louisville, @ Nova and vs West Virginia. Quality wins against Sienna, @Florida State, Syracuse, @ West Virginia, UConn (x2) and Marquette.
Likewise UNC: Borderline losses to BC and Maryland. Quality losses to Florida St (down Ty Lawson) and Wake Forest. Quality wins vs Michigan St, @ Florida St, Clemson, Maryland and Duke (x2).
Lousiville, their tourney win aside, should be a borderline #1. They have bad losses to UNLV and @Notre Dame. They also lost vs Western Kentucky and vs Minnesota -- borderline top 50 rpi teams -- and to UConn. They have quality wins against UAB, Nova (x2), Pitt, Cuse (x2), West Virginia(x2) and Marquette.
Memphis lost to vs Xavier, @Georgetown and Syracuse. With quality wins against only UAB (x2), @Tennessee, @Gonzaga. They certainly should be in contention for a number 1, but their body of work does not compare favorably to UConn.
At the end of the day, they have 1 bad loss, 4 quality wins and nothing close to a signature win such as UConn's @Louisville, UNC vs MSU and Duke (x2), Louisville against Pitt, and Pitt against UConn (x2).
On one hand, its not fair to penalize Memphis for playing in an inferior conference. On the other hand, they ought not profit from it.
That said, what it comes down to, perhaps, is recent tournament performance. UConn has not won a post-season game since 2006, when, as the most talented team in the nation, it was upset by George Mason. The committee -- for good reason -- may be most afraid of UConn embarrassing them with an early exit.
Its also not irrelevant, that Calipari, not Calhoun, is on the air now lobbying for his #1.
This all gets to the reason I believe its time for Calhoun to go. There was a time when nobody wanted to win more then Calhoun, which was reflected in the performance of his teams. One gets the strong sense that this is no longer the case. He is hardly be the first coach to suffer from resting-on-laurel-itis -- Coach K fell victim 10 years ago (which is how Calhoun won his first NCAA championship) -- but the players and the State of Connecticut deserves a Coach who wants, above all else, to win.
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