Netanyahu's Victory

To read the headlines, the result of the Israeli election is in doubt. For example, the Times has "Battle Is Close in Israeli Election which begins:

Israel’s centrist Kadima Party led by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and the more conservative Likud Party led by Benjamin Netanyahu were locked in a tight battle for leadership early Wednesday that left unclear the shape of the next Israeli government.

The close race all but guaranteed that the political jockeying to assemble a governing coalition would be intense and lengthy. And it left open the question of whether Ms. Livni, a supporter of a peace accord with the Palestinians, or the more hawkish Mr. Netanyahu would form the next government.

While it is true that there will be intense political jockeying, if the rule of law abides, it will not be lengthy and its outcome is not in doubt. The article itself actually reports the fact in the sixth paragraph down, if ambigously and with its import somewhat obscured.

Haaretz, no fan of Netanyahu's, is honest enough to report directly:

By law, the president must consult with all the parties as to who they prefer as prime minister, and whoever is recommended by more Knesset members is given the nod. Hence if the religious and rightist parties all recommend Netanyahu, he would get first crack at forming a government.

It takes some, lets call it "optimism", to believe that the religious and rightist parties will not all recommend Netanyahu and/or that he will not be able to form a coalition with them.

On a related note, I have to admit some unease about what a Netanyahu victory would mean for the American/Israeli relationship.

There are certainly many Obama supporters who would like to see the US pursue a "more balanced" policy. I think there is suspicion to be had of the goals of those who see the longstanding US policy of support for a Jewish state living side by side in peace with a Palestinian state as being, somehow, un-balanced. Other Obama supporters -- who go by the not quite accurate label "realists" -- would like to see Obama trade away Israel's interests in the pursuit of Iranian and broader Islamic favor.

This anti-Israel pressure is, of course, counter-balanced by the affinity between Jews and the Democratic party. Should Livni win, Obama's ability to act strongly against Israel will also be limited by "Hillary" voters who would be sensitive to the impression of Obama bullying a female leader. On the other hand, Netanyahu is a bit of the anti-christ to liberal American Jews. Obama would have a much freer hand to act strongly against a Netanyahu led Israel without sacrificing domestic support.